Tuesday, September 16th, 2008
Bear Stearns was swallowed up by JP Morgan. Lehman Bros. is bankrupt. Merrill Lynch was forced to sell. AIG is on the brink. Other banks, funds, and insurers are being forced into massive write-offs, equity raising, and job cuts. Across the pond, Northern Rock has been nationalized, other firms are taking on water, and the City is seeing huge layoffs.
New York, London and other world financial centers are getting ravaged by the financial meltdown. But one that seems to be an exception is Chicago. To date, it would seem that the brunt of the storm is hitting New York and London, where investment banking is concentrated.
It wasn’t too long ago that I thought Chicago’s financial center status was at risk. Its warring exchanges, saddled with legacy mutual structures and open outcry pits were in danger of getting passed by more nimble, electronic European exchanges. With Illinois long a unit banking state, it was never a major commercial banking sector, and its flagship names had fallen prey to outsiders, especially when Bank One (nee First Chicago) was taken over by JP Morgan.
Today, the situation is reversed. The exchange restructured and merged and are stronger than ever. In fact, they are the predators not the prey as they buy out the NYMEX. While still weak in commercial banking, Chicago became home to many hedge funds and VC operations. And it remained a major insurance center with regional companies like Allstate, State Farm, and CNA. While the Chicago financial sector is certainly not immune to the problems in the headlines, it seems on the surface to me that Chicago’s large institutions are coming through in pretty good shape.
Could this portend an increase in Chicago’s relative standing among financial centers? With NYC and London both set for an extensive downsizing of the sector, at least on a cyclical basis, Chicago is going to look like a much bigger player than it did just two years ago. This could end up being a good thing for the city. Despite having a major presence in many sectors, it is really finance that has driven Chicago’s resurgence, as it has that of so many other cities. Keeping strong and a prominent world center in that industry is absolutely critical to Chicago’s continued succeess. So while the crisis will hit the city’s tax coffers and such, hopefully for Chicago it will come through in a strong relative position than it had before.
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Aaron M. Renn is an opinion-leading urban analyst, consultant, speaker, and writer on a mission to help America’s cities thrive and find sustainable success in the 21st century.